Gold price prediction today: What factors will determine gold’s movement? Check July 29, 2026 outlook

The spotlight this week is firmly on today’s FOMC policy decision, which is expected to set the tone for gold’s next major move.

Gold price prediction today: Both gold and silver prices are expected to be volatile this week ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.Gold ended last week with a modest gain of nearly 0.9%, but the recovery looked more like a technical bounce than a change in the underlying trend. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices from above $100 per barrel and easing US Treasury yields offered some relief to bullion. However, the broader picture remained cautious, with gold continuing to trade within a five-week consolidation range as markets preferred to wait for fresh macro triggers rather than chase prices higher.Encouragingly, the World Gold Council reported 18.1 tonnes of net ETF inflows for the week ended July 24, putting July on track to become the first month in three with positive inflows, suggesting investor sentiment is beginning to stabilize despite recent weakness.This week, gold has once again traded cautiously, slipping lower as markets avoided taking aggressive positions ahead of today’s Federal Reserve policy decision. At the same time, one encouraging development has been gold’s ability to repeatedly hold around the $4,000/oz mark. Despite higher rate expectations and a stronger US dollar, physical holdings have remained broadly stable near 4,000 tonnes, indicating that long-term buyers continue to accumulate at lower levels even as speculative demand has cooled.Focus This WeekThe spotlight this week is firmly on today’s FOMC policy decision, which is expected to set the tone for gold’s next major move. While markets still assign the highest probability to the Fed leaving rates unchanged, expectations of a future rate hike have increased notably, making Chair Warsh’s comments on inflation and the September policy path even more important. Beyond the Fed, traders will closely watch US GDP, Core PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index, as these releases will shape expectations for future interest rate decisions. Meanwhile, oil prices, the US dollar, and Treasury yields will remain key variables, as any renewed rise in crude could revive inflation fears and weigh on bullion.

Technical Levels & Near-Term Outlook

Gold Price Outlook

From a weekly perspective, gold is likely to remain volatile, with today’s Fed meeting acting as the biggest catalyst. A hawkish message that reinforces higher-for-longer interest rates could strengthen the US dollar and bond yields, putting renewed pressure on gold. Conversely, if the Fed adopts a more balanced tone and upcoming inflation data shows signs of easing, bullion could extend its recovery from the $4,000/oz support area. Spot gold support is seen at $3,960 and $3,860, while resistance is placed at $4,220 and $4,300. For MCX Gold, the strong support zone remains at Rs 1,38,000-Rs 1,39,000, with Rs 1,47,000 acting as the immediate resistance. Overall, the medium-term bias remains constructive as long as physical demand continues to absorb selling pressure near the $4,000 level, but the Fed’s guidance today will be crucial in determining the next directional move.

Silver Price Outlook

Silver, too, has been consolidating at lower levels, trading in a narrow $55–62/oz range since late June. For now, prices are largely taking cues from Fed policy expectations and the direction of the US dollar, while the ongoing supply deficit continues to provide a supportive medium-term outlook.

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