Gold price prediction today: Will gold prices rise substantially from current levels? Check June 16, 2026 outlook
Gold can extend its rally further in the short-term as oil prices remain under pressure. (AI image)
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices may rise in the near-term as oil prices ease but the US Federal Reserve’s meeting is an important thing to watch, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.Gold Performance:
- Spot gold rallied hard on Monday as it extended its winning streak to the third day with the US and Iran reaching a MoU to end the Middle East conflict.
- The tentative deal/MoU is to be signed on June 19 in Geneva, Switzerland. Although many crucial details are yet to be known, as per the framework of the MoU, Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz in thirty days as the US lifts its blockade.
- Crude oil prices slumped as oil flow through the Strait could be normalized. Consequently, yields and the Dollar Index eased.
- Spot gold, at the time of writing this article, was trading with a daily gain of 3.24% at $4356.
- In the week ending June 12, it closed with a steep weekly loss of 2.51% at $4219.
Geopolitics and oil:
- The preliminary deal between the US and Iran, which will facilitate the sixty-day ceasefire, can be construed as a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. Many sticky and thorny issues viz sequencing of incentives for Iran, control of the Strait, Iran’s nuclear programme, reconstruction of Iran, etc. are yet to be resolved.
- Iran’s 14-point draft of the MoU also includes a $300 billion Iran reconstruction fund.
- As per the deal, Israel will cease fighting in Lebanon. Israel is opposed to the deal as it was concluded without Israel’s participation.
- Iran’s news agency Fars reported that Iran will allow vessels to transit free of charge for only 60 days; thereafter, Iran will charge for safety, navigation and environmental and insurance services. Iran and Oman will control the traffic in the Strait. Saudi Arabia has expressed its reservations against Iran generating revenue by charging the vessels. The US VP Vance said that transit through the Strait of Hormuz will be toll-free in the long term.
- The US President Trump has said that Iran will not charge for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has stated that billions of US Dollar of its frozen fund will be made available before the negotiations occur.
- Iran also wants all the primary and secondary sanctions to be lifted in negotiations during the ceasefire period.
- Several key issues like Iran’s ballistic missiles and its proxies, which were cited as major reasons by Israel and the US behind the war, have not figured in the MoU talks.
- Terms of the MoU are likely to be published once the deal is signed on Friday.
- Critics are not too enamoured with the deal; they do not see this deal bringing long-term stability to the region.
- Iranian negotiators may face hurdles in selling deals to hardliners at home as trust between the two nations is running low.
- It appears that Trump, who criticized the Obama-era nuclear deal that he went on to dismantle, may end up offering even more concessions for a much more limited potential nuclear deal.
- Brent Crude oil prices sank 5% to $82—lowest since March 10.
Data roundup:
- US Empire manufacturing in June came in at 5.7 Vs the estimate of 13.7 (prior 19.6), while industrial production stagnated in May (forecast 0.3%, prior 0.7%). NAHB Housing Index came in at 35 (forecast 37, prior 35) in May.
Dollar Index and yields:
- The US Dollar Index fell for the third consecutive day on June 15 as crude oil prices tumbled. At the time of writing this article, the Index was hovering around 99.58, down 0.15% for the day. Two-year US yields, which fell 1.5% last week, fell 1% to 4.03% as investors pared back their rate hike expectations. Ten-year US yields, following a weekly decline of 1.5% last week, were down 3 bps to 4.45% on Monday.
- Indian Rupee rallied nearly 0.8% against the US Dollar to 94.30.
US rate hike probability:
- Implied overnight rates reflect slight easing in rate hikes by the year-end from 0.82 hikes as seen on Friday to 0.72 currently, while the first full rate hike timeline has shifted from January to March 2026.
ETF and COMEX inventory:
- Total known global gold ETF holdings slid for the fifth consecutive day on June 12. Holdings stand at 97.33 MOz, down 1.62 MOz YTD.
- ETFs have seen a net outflow of ~3.59 MOz since the Iran war broke out on February 28.
- Registered COMEX gold inventory now at 15.42 MOz is 0.28 MOz higher than the cycle low of 15.14 MOz reached on June 9.
India’s gold imports and domestic ETFs:
- India’s gold imports fell sharply from $5.62 billion in April to $3.42 billion in May as the government hiked import duty on gold from 6% to 15% in May.
- The month of May recorded a net outflow of 7 billion rupees from domestic gold ETFs — the first time in 13 months- as import duty was hiked and international gold prices fell amid huge volatility.
CFTC positioning:
- As per the CFTC data on futures and options for the week ending June 9, money managers decreased their bullish gold bets by 7,681 net-long positions to 103,660. Long-only positions fell 3,462 lots to 125,798, while short-only positions rose 4,219 lots to 22,138.
Upcoming data:
- Major US data on tap this week include housing starts (June 16) and retail sales (June 17).
- The Eurozone’s CPI (June 17), UK’s CPI (June 17) and monthly employment report (June 18) will also be on investors’ radar.
- China’s retail sales, industrial production and property prices data will be released on June 16.
Central Bank watch:
- The FOMC will deliver its monetary policy decision on June 17. It will be the first meeting of Kevin Warsh as a Fed Chair. The Central Bank may adopt a cautiously hawkish stance as encouraging nonfarm payroll reports and ISMs are likely to alleviate the FOMC’s concerns regarding the job market; members may shift their focus to curbing inflationary concerns.
- Bank of Japan is expected to hike its benchmark rate from 0.75% to 1% in its monetary policy meeting on June 16.
- The Bank of England is expected to keep the rate steady at its MPC meeting on June 18.
Gold Price Outlook:
- The yellow metal has rallied 8.25% from the cycle-low of $4024 reached on June 11 as bargain hunting and the US-Iran deal optimism have led to a sharp rebound.
- Gold can extend its rally further in the short-term as oil prices remain under pressure; however, as the week wears on, we expect traders to turn cautious ahead of the FOMC monetary policy decision due on June 17 and deal signing on June 19.
- Gold can test the resistance around $4430-$4450 in the very short-term. Support is at $4300/$4250. A dovish Fed can take the metal to $4580-$4600.
- Traders can buy the dips with suitable stop-loss. They need to keep a tab on US-Iran deal developments.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)
