Dalal Street outlook: Inflation, Fed verdict and crude oil in focus; US-Iran deal hopes to steer market sentiment
Inflation data, the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and movements in crude oil prices will be the key triggers for Indian equity markets in the coming week, analysts said.Investors will also closely watch developments surrounding the proposed US-Iran agreement, foreign investor activity and trends in global markets for further direction.“On the domestic front, investors will monitor the release of May WPI inflation data,” Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said, PTI quoted.Globally, the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision will be the most significant event, he added.US President Donald Trump has said a deal to end the war with Iran would be signed on Sunday and that the strategic Strait of Hormuz would be “open to all” immediately afterwards.At the same time, Trump kept open the possibility of fresh attacks if the agreement does not materialise as expected.
US-Iran developments in spotlight
Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the proposed US-Iran agreement, according to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.Any progress on the deal could have implications for global oil prices and risk sentiment across markets.“Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the proposed US–Iran agreement,” Ponmudi R said, PTI quoted.
Fed decision, inflation data key triggers
Apart from domestic inflation data, investors will closely track the outcome of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 16-17.“Another major event on investors’ radar is the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. Market participants will closely monitor the Fed’s commentary, inflation outlook, economic growth projections, and indications regarding future rate cuts,” said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd.Gour added that the progress of the monsoon season and inflation trends will remain important domestic indicators.
Foreign outflows remain a concern
Foreign investors continued to pare exposure to Indian equities, selling shares worth more than Rs 62,853 crore during the first half of June.According to National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) data, total Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) outflows from Indian equities have reached Rs 2.87 lakh crore so far in 2026, exceeding the Rs 1.66 lakh crore withdrawn during the whole of 2025.
Crude oil trends crucial for India
Analysts said the recent correction in crude oil prices following expectations of a US-Iran peace agreement could support market sentiment in India.“Recent geopolitical developments, which everyone expects to lead to a peace deal between the US and Iran, have led to a sharp correction in the price of Brent crude. For a big oil importer like India, this is a huge positive,” V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited, said.The outlook comes after a strong week for domestic equities. The BSE Sensex gained 1,284.61 points, or 1.73%, while the NSE Nifty advanced 256.2 points, or 1%, last week.
