India set to overtake China in share of world GDP by 2060, report says
India is projected to surpass China in terms of its share of global GDP measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) by around 2060, as China’s contribution to the world economy is expected to stabilise and decline in the second half of the century, PTI reported citing a report by researchers associated with the World Inequality Lab.The report titled, Global Justice Report: A Plan for Equality and Prosperity With Planetary Boundaries, said China’s share of global GDP currently stands at about 20% in PPP terms, roughly one-third higher than that of the US, and is projected to become nearly twice as large as the American economy by 2035 under its benchmark projections.However, the report said China’s demographic trends are expected to reshape that trajectory over the longer term.“China’s population share is falling very fast, from 23 per cent of the world population in 1945 to about 17 per cent in 2025 and less than 8 per cent in 2100.“As a consequence, the share of China in world GDP is projected to stabilise and decline in the second half of the 21st century, and to be overtaken by India around 2060,” it said.The report argued that China is unlikely to attain the level of economic dominance once enjoyed by the United States or Europe during their peak periods.“In any case, China is very unlikely to ever reach the kind of hegemonic position which the US had in the world around 1950 (with as much as 35–40 per cent of the world’s GDP) or which Europe had around 1900–1910 (around 40–45 per cent),” it said.According to the researchers, the global economy is likely to become increasingly multipolar during the 21st century, unlike the more concentrated economic structures that characterised the 19th and 20th centuries.
India-China inequality contrast
The report also highlighted differences in inequality and productivity growth between the two Asian economies.“It is also striking that India has much more inequality than China, but much lower productivity growth, which can, however, also be explained by larger and better-targeted human capital expenditure in China,” it said.The World Inequality Lab is a research laboratory based at the Paris School of Economics and focuses on the study of inequality across countries.Purchasing power parity measures the amount of goods and services that can be purchased using a country’s currency compared with another country, offering an alternative way to compare economic size beyond market exchange rates.According to the latest World Economic Outlook projections, India’s GDP is expected to rise to about $4.15 trillion in 2026 from $3.92 trillion in 2025. The UK’s GDP is projected at $4.27 trillion in 2026, while Japan’s economy is expected to decline from $4.48 trillion in 2025 to $4.38 trillion in 2026.The US is projected to remain the world’s largest economy in 2026 with a GDP of $32.38 trillion, followed by China at $20.85 trillion.
